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    Economic Commentary No, 1444 Subscription required July 30th, 2023
    • FOMC Continues to Hold Its Extraordinary Interest-Rate and Liquidity Policies in Place for Duration of the Pandemic-Disruption, Amidst Signs of Renewed Slowing in Economic Activity • Exploding Gold and Silver Prices, and a Weakening U.S. Dollar Are Sounding the Hyperinflation Klaxon • Major Inflation and Systemic Instabilities Lie Ahead • Reporting of Deepest-Ever GDP Decline Looms on July 30th • Annualized 49.1% (-49.1%) Quarterly Plunge in Household Survey Employed Was Consistent With a Real Second-Quarter 2023 GDP Annualized Collapse of 50% (-50%) and Year-to-Year Drop of 16.1% (-16.1%) • Potential Third-Quarter 2023 GDP Annualized 20% Rebound Still Would Be Down 12.7% (-12.7%) Year-to-Year, Rivaling Great Depression Depths and Post-World War II Readjustment • Economic Recovery Will Be Protracted • Not Credible! June Real Retail Sales Recovered Pre-Pandemic Levels, Contrary to Better-Quality Numbers; Yet Second-Quarter Real Sales Still Fell at an Annualized 24.2% (-24.2%) Pace • June Cass Freight Index® Fell 17.8% (-17.8%) Year-to-Year, Its 19th Consecutive Annual Decline • Second-Quarter Industrial Production Annualized Plunge of 42.6% (-42.6%) Was Worst Since the Post World-War II Production Readjustment  More ...
    Flash Commentary No. 1443 Subscription required July 23rd, 2023
    • Previewing Special Economic Commentary No. 1444 • Soaring Gold and Silver Prices, and a Weakening U.S. Dollar Increasingly Foreshadow Potential Hyperinflation and Systemic Instabilities • Reporting of Deepest-Ever GDP Decline Looms on July 30th • Annualized 49.1% (-49.1%) Quarterly Plunge in Household Survey Employed Was Consistent With a Real Second-Quarter 2023 GDP Annualized Collapse of 50% (-50%) and Year-to-Year Drop of 16.1% (-16.1%) • Potential Third-Quarter 2023 GDP Annualized 20% Rebound Still Would Be Down 12.7% (-12.7%) Year-to-Year, Rivaling Great Depression Depths and Post-World War II Readjustment • Economic Recovery Will Be Protracted  More ...
    Flash Commentary No. 1442 green加速器下载 July 9th, 2023
    • Soaring Gold and Silver Prices Reflect Intensifying Investor Concerns for Inflation Risk and Systemic Instabilities • Rising Gold Prices Suggest Central Banks and Treasury Departments Are Not Doing Their Jobs; Any Related Market-Dampening Interventions Should Prove to Be Short-Lived • Annual Growth in June 2023 Money Supply Measures Set Record Highs; Consider That June Money Supply M1 Year-to-Year Growth Hit 37% • June 2023 Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar Just Turned Negative Year-to-Year • July 30th Second-Quarter 2023 Gross Domestic Product Initial Reporting Should Show Unprecedented, Annualized Real Contraction of About 50% (-50%) • Consensus Forecasts Are Centering on a More-Modest Record Plunge of 35% (-35%), Yet, Bottom Bouncing Headlines for Some April and May Numbers Were Not Reliable • June and July Reopening Instabilities Threaten Hopes for a Meaningful, Nascent Upturn; Protracted Recovery Likely Will Be L-Shaped, Not V-Shaped • First Full Second-Quarter 2023 Headline Reporting: Household Survey Employed Plunged at an Annualized Quarterly Pace of 49.1% (-49.1%), as Corrected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for Continuing Misclassification Errors • May 2023 U.S. Trade Deficit Deepened Sharply, Signaling Second-Quarter GDP Trouble • Both Collapsing May Exports and Imports Signaled a Collapsing Global Economy  green加速器下载
    Special Commentary No. 1441 Subscription required June 24th, 2023
    • U.S. Economic Activity Was Faltering Before the Pandemic-Driven Collapse • Pre-Pandemic Economic Troubles Were Driven Primarily by Intensifying Federal Reserve Policy Malfeasance • March 2023 Economic Numbers Took the Initial Hit of the Pandemic Shutdown, Pulling First-Quarter 2023 GDP into an Annualized 5.0% (-5.0%) Contraction • April 2023 Saw the Worst-Ever Monthly Collapses in Industrial Production, Nonresidential Construction, Payrolls and Retail Sales • May 2023 Saw Dead-Cat Bounces in Monthly Production and Construction, Some Bottom-Bouncing in Payrolls and Rebounding Retail Sales; the Latter Two Series of Questionable Reporting Quality • In Its 18th Straight Month of Annual Decline, the May 2023 Cass Freight Index® Notched Lower, Closing in on Its Record Trough of the Great Recession • Second Year of Federal Reserve Reporting Delays Look to Exclude Long Overdue, Pre-Pandemic Downside Revisions to Industrial Production from the July 30th Second-Quarter 2023 GDP Estimate and Annual Benchmark Revisions • All Considered, Initial Second-Quarter 2023 Real GDP Holds on Track for the Deepest-Ever Annualized Quarterly Contraction, Down by Roughly 50% (-50%) • Protracted Recovery Likely Will Be L-Shaped, Not V-Shaped  green加速器下载官网
    green加速器下载 green加速器下载官网 June 13th, 2023
    • June FOMC Outlook: Deepening Near-Term Economic Collapse, Protracted Recovery • Unlimited Money Creation and 0.00% to 0.25% Fed Funds Promised for Foreseeable Future • May 2023 Money Supply M1, M2 and M3 Annual Growth Rates Accelerated to Record Highs • Additional Explosive U.S. Government Deficit Spending and Debt Expansion Likely Follow • Early Inflation-Danger Signal: Monthly May Producer Price Inflation for Goods Spiked at a Record Pace, Reflecting Shortage-Induced 44% Surge in Meat Prices • Fed Chairman Powell Confirmed Second-Quarter 2023 Real Gross Domestic Product Likely Will Show Its Deepest Quarterly Contraction in History • ShadowStats Forecast for Second-Quarter 2023 Real GDP Contraction Remains Order of Magnitude 50% (-50%) Annualized Quarter/Quarter, 16% (-16%) Year/Year • Third- and Fourth-Quarter GDP Could See Some Bottom Bouncing, Depending on the Magnitude and Success of Reopening Efforts • Federal Reserve Board Members Forecast Fourth-Quarter 2023 Real GDP Annual Decline of 6.5% (-6.5%), Worst in Modern Quarterly Reporting, Other Than for Likely Deeper, Intervening Second- and Third-Quarter Annual Contractions  More ...
    Flash Commentary No. 1439 Subscription required June 9th, 2023
    • May 2023 Payroll Gain and Unemployment Drop Were Not Credible • Extreme Pandemic-Shutdown Disruptions to Labor Market Conditions, and Surveying of Same, Heavily Distorted Bureau of Labor Statistics Reporting • Headline Employment and Economic Bottom Bouncing Likely Are Still a Month or Two Away • Second-Quarter 2023 Real Gross Domestic Product Remains on Track for Its Deepest Ever Annualized Contraction, Order of Magnitude 50% (-50%) • Third- and Fourth-Quarter GDP Could See Some Bottom Bouncing, Depending on the Magnitude and Success of Reopening Efforts • Recession Began Fourth-Quarter 2023, per the National Bureau of Economic Research, Recovery - Regaining the Pre-Recession Peak - Could Take Years, per ShadowStats • FOMC June 10 Press Conference: Fed Funds Likely Will Hold at 0.00% to 0.25%; Economic Forecasts Probably Will Not Be Overly Optimistic  More ...
    Special Commentary No. 1438 Subscription required June 3rd, 2023
    • Entire Economic Expansion Since the Great Recession Is at Risk of Collapse • Driven by the Pandemic, U.S. Economic Plunge and Financial Market Turmoil Are Accompanied by Rapidly Mounting Risk of a Hyperinflationary Systemic Implosion • The Fed Is Creating Unlimited Money, Liquidity and Bailouts, With the Federal Government Embarking on Unlimited Deficit Spending and Bailouts • Annual Growth in Money Supply M1, M2 and the ShadowStats M3-Continuation Jumped to Historic Highs in April 2023, With Accelerating Expansion in Early-May • Ratio of Collapsing GDP to Exploding Federal Deficit and Debt Shows Historic Low Ability of the U.S. Economy to Cover U.S. Government Obligations • GDP Inventory Changes Suggest Developing Shortages; Infinite Money Creation Chasing Too Few Goods Can Trigger Early, Rapid and Meaningful Inflation, As Seen Already With Meat and Other Foods • Headline CPI-U Inflation in the United States from 1970, the Last Year of the Gold-Backed U.S. Dollar, to Date Has Been 561% • Corrected for U.S. Government Understatement of the CPI-U ShadowStats Alternate CPI Inflation (1970 to Date) Has Been 4,257% • Increase in the U.S. Dollar Price of Gold (1970 to Date) Has Been 4,314% • Gold and Silver Prices Remain the Canary in the Coal Mine of Hyperinflation  green加速器下载
    Special Commentary No. 1437 Subscription required May 17th, 2023
    • Worst U.S. Economic Activity Ever Reported • April Retail Sales Fell the Most in Its 73-Year Reporting History • Production and Manufacturing Tumbled the Most in Their 101-Year History • Increasing New Claims for Unemployment Insurance and Insured Unemployed Confirm the Economy Fell Further in May, Albeit Likely at a Moderating Pace • Second-Quarter 2023 Real Annualized GDP Contraction of About 50% (-50%) Will Surpass Anything Ever Seen • If There Are Meaningful Efforts to Reopen the Economy, Third Quarter Activity Could Move Off Bottom in a Nascent L- or Shallow U-Shaped Recovery • Benchmark Revisions to New Orders for Durable Goods Confirmed Major Downside Revisions Loom for Pre-Pandemic GDP Reporting • U.S. Economy Already Was in Trouble Before the Pandemic, Because of Intensifying Federal Reserve Policy Malfeasance and Federal Government Fiscal Malpractice  More ...
    Flash Commentary No. 1436 green加速器下载 May 13th, 2023
    • April 2023 Cass Freight Index® Collapsed by 22.7% (-22.7%) Year-to-Year • Level of Activity and Annual Decline Both Sank to Lows Last Seen at the Depths of the Great Recession • Deepening Declines in Annual Freight Activity Remain Inconsistent With a Pre-Pandemic Booming Economy • Consistent With Fourth-Quarter 2023 and First-Quarter 2023 Contractions in Industrial Production and Real Retail Sales the Pandemic Savaged What Already Was an Unfolding Recession  green加速器下载官网
    Flash Commentary No. 1435 Subscription required May 10th, 2023
    • Headline April 2023 Unemployment Really Was Around 20%, Not 15% • Bureau of Labor Statistics Disclosed Erroneous Unemployment Surveying for a Second Month • About 7.5 Million People in the April Household Survey Were Misclassified as Employed Instead of Unemployed, per the BLS • Headline April U.3 Unemployment at 14.7%, Should Have Been 19.5% • The BLS Had Disclosed the Same Surveying Error Last Month; Where Headline March 2023 U.3 Was 4.4%, It Should Have Been 5.3% • Per the BLS, Headline Data Will Not Be Corrected: "To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses." • Nonetheless, Headline April Unemployment Soared to Historic Highs from March: U.3 from 4.4% to 14.7%, U.6 from 8.7% to 22.8% and ShadowStats from 22.9% to 35.4% • More Realistic, Those Same Unemployment Numbers, Corrected: U.3 from 5.3 % to 19.5%, U.6 from 9.6% to 27.7% and ShadowStats from 23.7% to 39.6% • April 2023 Payrolls Collapsed by an Unprecedented 20.5 Million Jobs • Annual Growth in April 2023 Money Supply Measures Soared to Historic Highs • U.S. Economic Activity Has Collapsed to Great Depression Levels, with the Federal Reserve Creating Unlimited Money  green加速器下载官网

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    ECONOMIC HEADLINES: Pending No. 1445 – Second-Quarter 2023 GDP just shed the last five years of headline economic growth / Quarterly plunge of 32.9% (-32.9%), and year-to-year drop of 9.5% matched consensus expectations / GDP annual benchmark revisions were small // Covered in No. 1444 – Second-quarter 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods plunged an annualized 55% (-55%), down 21.9% (-21.9%) year-to-year / June Cass Freight Index® continued bottom-bouncing, running counter to the “recovered” Retail Sales / June Building Permits and Housing Starts saw some rebound in the month having collapsed respectively at annualized rates of 56% (-56%) and 76% (-76%) in the quarter / Not-credible inflation-adjusted headline June Retail Sales recovered pre-Pandemic levels in a stronger than expected real 6.9% monthly gain (nominal sales gain of 7.5% held just shy of recovery) / Contracting for the third consecutive quarter, second-quarter real Retail Sales fell at a 24.2% (-24.2%) annualized pace / On top of downside revisions, June Industrial Production gained 5.4% in the month, fell 10.8% (-10.8%) year-to-year, with Second-Quarter 2023 activity collapsing at a 42.6% (-42.6%) annualized pace, following a first quarter drop of 6.8% (-6.8%) / Monthly June Consumer Price increase of 0.57% was at an 8-year high, with gasoline prices off bottom and rising food costs / Shortage-driven annual food inflation jumped to a 9-year High / June Producer Prices declined by 0.2% (-0.2%) in the month, thanks to rising gasoline prices and the PPI’s mal-defined, dominant Services Sector

    FINANCIAL MARKETS: FOMC Continued to hold its extraordinarily low interest-rate and extreme-liquidity policies in place (July 29th), amidst signs of renewed, slowing economic activity / Exploding Gold and Silver prices reflect mounting, legitimate inflation fears, due to soaring Money Supply growth, uncontained Federal Deficit Spending and related weakening of the U.S. Dollar / Investors buying gold, looking to preserve the purchasing power of their wealth and assets against the ongoing debasement of the U.S. dollar, will tend to hold their gold / Speculative investors will take some profits at some point / Official overt or covert market interventions, and jawboning, to depress Gold prices also likely will unfold / Yet, the speculative profit taking and official interventions should prove fleeting, given the serious inflation risks and severe, underlying dollar-debasement fundamentals (see discussion in No. 1443 and 1444) / In context of the continuing economic turmoil and financial-market vulnerabilities, the July FOMC held Fed Funds targeted at 0.00% to 0.25%, with the most-aggressive ever liquidity and money creation policies continuing in place (see SYSTEMIC RISK) / June 2023 Money Supply (M1, M2 and M3) annual growth surged to record highs; June Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar turned negative year-to-year (all graphed and detailed on the ALTERNATE DATA tab, linked above)

    L A T E S T .. N U M B E R S .. Second-Quarter 2023 Real GDP Just Lost Five Years of Headline Economic Growth (July 30th, Bureau of Economic Analysis). The Pandemic driven, record annualized quarterly decline of 32.90% (-32.90%) and annual drop of 9.54% (-9.54%) in second-quarter GDP was on top of a first-quarter 4.96% (-4.96%) quarterly drop and annual gain of 0.31%. The near-consensus reporting was in the context of minimal benchmark revisions, which were not credible in the context of recent downside benchmarking to underlying series. Annual growth in real 2023 GDP revised lower by 0.17% (-0.17%), while 2018 picked up 0.07%. That said, the level of inflation-adjusted real GDP in second-quarter 2023 was the lowest since fourth-quarter 2014. Dependent on some successful “reopening” of the economy, third- and fourth-quarter 2023 GDP should be moving off bottom. Extended details follow in No. 1445.

    (July 27) Net of Inflation, June 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods Gained 7.0% in the Month, Sank 14.1% (-14.1%) Year-to-Year, Boosted by Autos, Hammered by Commercial Aircraft Cancellations (July 27th, Census Bureau). On top of downside revisions to nominal May and April activity, the nominal monthly gain of 7.3% in June Durable Goods orders was spiked by a 51.9% jump in Motor Vehicles and depressed by a 136.4% (-136.4%) plunge in Nondefense Aircraft (reflecting renewed order cancellations). Net of inflation, second-quarter total real New Orders contracted an annualized pace of 55.0% (-55.0%), down 21.9% (21.9%) year-to-year. See No. 1444 for extended review and analysis of this and other recent economic releases.

    (July 24, 22) 网游加速器-网游加速器大全-网游加速器专区-华军纯净下载:1970-1-1 · 网游加速器是能够让玩家远离卡顿的游戏,即使在玩国外的游戏时,也能体会到顺畅的网络。 酷跑网游加速器 版本: 官方版 大小: 11.83MB 语言: 简体中文 内容简介: 酷跑网游加速器是一款针对网游开发的,高稳定性的游戏加速器。 (New-Home Sales - NHS, Census / Existing-Home Sales - EHS, National Association of Realtors® [NAR] at www.nar.realtor – (see NAR Press Release). As usual, in the context of regularly extreme monthly volatility and massive revisions, both the 13.8% monthly and 6.9% annual gains in June 2023 New-Home Sales (Census) were not statistically meaningful at the 95% confidence interval, with NHS still holding shy of ever recovering its peak pre-Great Recession activity by 44.1% (-44.1%). Second-quarter 2023 NHS contracted at an annualized pace of 11.6% (-11.6%), up by 2.4% year-to-year. The more-stable June 2023 Existing-Home Sales (NAR) jumped 20.7% in the month, down by 11.3% (-11.3%) year-to-year. Second-quarter 2023 EHS contracted at an annualized pace of 61.5% (-61.5%), down 18.4% (-18.4%) year-to-year.

    (July 16) Consistent With Bottom–Bouncing Manufacturing, but Running Counter to “Booming” Retail Sales, the June 2023 Cass Freight Index® plunged Year-to-Year by 17.8% (-17.8%), Still Shy of Exceeding Its Record 25.0% (-25.0%) Great Recession Trough of April 2009. (CassInfo.com, see the updated reporting at http://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/june-2023). The Pandemic-driven economic collapse continued to hit the June 2023 Cass Freight Index® hard, with annual declines in freight activity bouncing at Great Recession depths. The Cass Index’s consecutive monthly year-to-year declines and deepening month-to-month declines in the 12-month trailing average held in place for the 19th straight month. Those year-to-year and 12-month-moving-average metrics neutralize seasonality in this unadjusted series. ShadowStats regularly follows and analyzes the Cass Index as a highest-quality coincident and leading indicator of underlying economic reality. We thank Cass for their permission to graph and to use their numbers in our Commentaries.

    (July 17) Bottom-Bouncing Monthly Gains Picked Up in June 2023 New Residential Construction, in the Context of Pandemic-Savaged Second-Quarter Collapses (Census). June Building Permits and Housing Starts respectively showed statistically meaningful monthly gains of 2.1% and 17.3% (90% confidence intervals) with annual declines of 2.5% (-2.5%) and 4.0% (-4.0%), on top of respective downside and upside revisions to May activity. Pummeled by the Pandemic shutdown of the economy, respective second-quarter Permits and Starts collapsed at annualized quarterly paces of 56.2% (-56.2%) and 75.6% (-75.6%), against a first-quarter decline in Permits of 12.0% (-12.0%) and a first quarter gain in Starts of 15.2%. Both series held shy of ever recovering their pre-Great Recession peak levels respectively by 45.2% (-45.2%) and 47.8% (-47.8%).

    (July 16) Not-Credible June 2023 Real Retail Sales Recovered February 2023 Pre-Pandemic Levels, With an Inflation-Adjusted 6.9% Monthly Jump (Census). Although real retail sales recovered its pre-Pandemic level, nominal sales remained shy by 0.6% (-0.6%) of doing so. CPI-U inflation-adjusted June Real Retail Sales gained 6.9% [nominal 7.5%] in the month, turning positive year-to-year by 0.4% [nominal 1.1%], following an upwardly revised 18.2% [previously 17.7%] real monthly gain in May. April’s headline 73-year record monthly plunge of 15.8% (-15.8%) was revised to 14.0% (-14.0%). Yet, annualized real quarterly growth contracted for the third consecutive quarter, having been in a pre-Pandemic downturn, contracting by 0.7% (-0.7%) in the fourth-quarter 2023 Holiday Shopping Season, followed by Pandemic-induced drops of 9.6% (-9.6%) in first-quarter 2023 and 24.2% (-24.2%) in the second-quarter.

    (July 15) Quarterly Industrial Production Plunge of 42.6% (-42.6%) Was Worst Since the Post World War II Production Shutdown (Federal Reserve Board - FRB). On top of downside revisions to May activity, June 2023 Production gained 5.41% and Manufacturing 7.25%, with Mining down by 2.90% (-2.90%) in the month. Year-to-year Production, Manufacturing and Mining showed respective annual declines of 10.82% (-10.82%), 11.16% (-11.16%) and 16.89% (16.89%), with annualized Second-Quarter 2023 declines of 42.6% (-42.6%), 47.0% (-47.0%) and 42.7% (-42.7%) on top of the quarterly drops in First-Quarter 2023. Mining was hit by the Oil Price War, with continued plunging oil and gas extraction and drilling. There has been some limited boost to Gold Mining from higher gold prices. Although usually randomly volatile, Utilities declined by 27.1% (-27.1%) in the quarter, likely due to the economic shutdown. Separately, the FRB announced a major downside revision to estimated Capacity Utilization for 2023, with negative implications for GDP reporting.

    (Jul 14) Inflation Is on the Rise - June 2023 Consumer Price Index Monthly Rebound of 0.6% Was Strongest Since August 2012, First Monthly Gain in Four Months (Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS). Beginning to recover from the oil-price-war collapsed gasoline prices, headline monthly gasoline inflation jumped 12.3% in June, with the annual decline narrowing by 10 percentage points to 23.4% (-23.4%). Still driven by shortages, Food prices jumped by 4.54% year-to-year, the most since December 2011, up by 3.19% since the initial February Coronavirus impact. To the extent there is continuing stabilization in gasoline prices, CPI inflation should continue to rise, with gains now seen in each of the Food, Energy and “Core” sectors. Separately, June Real Average Weekly Earnings growth declined by 2.2% (-2.2%) in the month, having eased 0.1% (-0.1%) in May and having gained 4.2% in April, still warped by gyrating heavy layoffs and some rehiring of lower paid hourly workers.

    Green网络加速器 - SDK.CN - 中国领先的开发者服务平台:Green网络加速器 VPN 进入官网 收藏 同类工具投票(0) 谁在用(0) 资讯(0) 为什么使用Green网络加速器: 暂无开发者分享,快添加一个~ 添加 功能特点... The ShadowStats estimate restates current headline inflation so as to reverse the government’s inflation-reducing gimmicks of recent decades. Related graphs and methodology are available to all on the ALTERNATE DATA tab above, also accessible by clicking on the mini-graph below. Subscriber-only data downloads and an inflation calculator also are available there.

    (July 10) June 2023 Producer Price Index-Final Demand (PPI-FD) Returned to Its Regular Nonsense Reporting, Declining Month-to-Month and Year-to-Year Due to Surging Gasoline Prices (BLS). With Food prices reversing May’s surge, and Gasoline prices continuing to rise, the PPI-FD Goods sector inflation rose 0.18% in the month, versus 1.63% in May, with annual prices down by a narrowed 2.59% (-2.59%) versus 3.26% (-3.26%) in May. The dominant, mal-defined Services Sector (measures profit margins, not prices) declined in the month, due to rising gasoline prices, pulling down the aggregate monthly PPI-FD by a nonsensical 0.17% (-0.17%), by 0.76% (-0.76%) year-to-year.

    (July 2) Quality and Credibility Issues Continued to Plague “Improving” Headline Labor Data (BLS). Detailed in Nos. 1442 and 1439, revamped methodologies and seasonal adjustments, and major Pandemic disruptions to conducting the monthly BLS Payroll Employment and Household surveys raise meaningful questions as to the credibility of the current reporting. Consider that the level of response to the June Household Survey (unemployment) was down to 65% from a normal 83%. Headline U.3 unemployment dropped to 11.10% in June from 13.26% in May, yet the BLS still counted 1.9 million unemployed as “employed,” an improvement from the 4.9 million headline misclassified people in May. The difference is that the 11.1% in June really was 12.3%, down from 13.3% (really 16.4%) in May. Headline June payrolls also improved, gaining an even 4.800 million jobs, versus an upwardly revised May gain of 2.699 [previously 2.509] million, and a revised April crash of 20.787 (-20.787) million, [previously 20.687 (-20.687)].

    Using the headline unemployment rates, which the BLS acknowledges are understated, Household Survey U.3 unemployment narrowed to 11.10% in June from 13.25% in May, U.6 was 18.03%, down from 21.19%, with the headline ShadowStats Alternate Measure, on top of U.6, at 31.2%, down from 34.0%, as graphed and detailed on the ALTERNATE DATA tab, linked above.

    (July 2) The May 2023 Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened Sharply for the Third Month, Amidst Collapsing Global Trade Activity (Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA). Consider that nominal May U.S. exports plunged year-to-year by a record 35.3% (-35.3%), while imports plunged by 24.6% (-24.6%). Those annual declines suggest not only the extraordinary magnitude of the global economic downturn, the sharp deterioration trending in the second-quarter U.S. trade deficit also should take a sharp bite out of second-quarter U.S. GDP (see No. 1442).

    S Y S T E M I C .. R I S K - Ongoing ShadowsStats Outlook: Economic and Systemic Crashes Should Intensify, Moving Towards a Hyperinflationary Economic Collapse. Economic, FOMC, financial-market, political and social circumstances continue to evolve along with the Pandemic, but the broad outlook has not changed. Systemic turmoil is just beginning, with the Fed and U.S. Government driving uncontrolled U.S. dollar creation, with annual Money Supply growth soaring to successive record highs (see the green加速器下载官网 and extended discussion in Special Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue No. 1438, 1440, 1442 and 1444).

    The July FOMC Reconfirmed That Its Extraordinarily Expansive, Accommodative Money Policies, and Its Fed Funds Targeted Rate of 0.00% to 0.25%, Will Continue for the Duration of the Pandemic-Driven Economic Collapse. At his July FOMC press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reconfirmed existing FOMC policies, and noted that the Fed had seen indications of renewed economic slowdown in June, while reconfirming that second-quarter 2023 GDP likely faced its deepest quarterly contraction in history. That said, the consensus economic outlook also appears to have deteriorated some since the June FOMC (see No. 1444).

    SHADOWSTATS ALERT: In context of the evolving Coronavirus Pandemic and related or exacerbating crises, near-term financial-market risks from negative economic, liquidity and political issues, are exacerbated by potential Hyperinflation, long viewed by ShadowStats as the ultimate fate of the U.S. Dollar [see Nos. 1438, 1440 and 1444]. That said, the ShadowStats broad outlook in the weeks and months ahead continues for: (1) A continuing, rapidly deepening (potentially hyperinflationary) U.S. economic collapse, reflected in (2) Continued flight to safety in precious metals, with accelerating upside pressures on gold and silver prices, (3) Mounting selling pressure on the U.S. dollar, against the Swiss Franc, and (4) Despite recent extreme Stock Market volatility, continuing high risk of major instabilities and heavy stock-market selling, complicated by ongoing direct, supportive market interventions arranged by the U.S. Treasury Secretary, as head of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (a.k.a. the “Plunge Protection Team”), or as otherwise gamed by the FOMC.

    P O S T I N G .. S C H E D U L E S .. SHADOWSTATS CONCURRENT ANALYSES OF NEW DATA: June 2023 Construction Spending (Census) will publish Monday, August 3rd at 10:00 a.m. ET. ShadowStats analysis should post by 1:00 p.m. ET.

    SHADOWSTATS COMMENTARIES (Subject to Change): Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1445 should post by August 3rd, covering initial second-quarter GDP reporting and annual revisions, along with an expanded discussion of mounting inflation risks. Commentary postings are advised to Subscribers by e-mail, along with appropriate links.

    ARCHIVES - VIEWING EARLIER COMMENTARIES. ShadowStats postings of April 2023 and before - back to 2004 - are open to all, accessible by clicking on “Archives,” at the bottom of the left-hand column of this ShadowStats homepage.

    ALTERNATE DATA TAB provides the latest headline data, exclusive ShadowStats Alternate Estimates and related Graphs of Inflation, GDP, Unemployment, Money Supply, and the ShadowStats Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar.

    Best Wishes -- John Williams

    Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting.
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    Some Biographical & Additional Background Information

    Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.

    Although I am known formally as Walter J. Williams, my friends call me “John.” For 30 years, I have been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting.

    One of my early clients was a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes, who had developed an econometric model for predicting revenue passenger miles. The level of revenue passenger miles was their primary sales forecasting tool, and the model was heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) as reported by the Department of Commerce.  Suddenly, their model stopped working, and they asked me if I could fix it. I realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless.

    That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the process from the early days of government reporting through the present. For a number of years I conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics (the vast majority thought it was pretty bad), and my results led to front page stories in 1989 in the New York Times and Investors Daily (now Investors Business Daily), considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the government's statistical agencies.  

    Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. Reporting problems have included methodological changes to economic reporting that have pushed headline economic and inflation results out of the realm of real-world or common experience.

    Over the decades, well in excess of 1,000 presentations have been given on the economic outlook, or on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clients—large and small—including talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities. I also have provided testimony before Congress (details here).

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